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Despite the yen's weakness this year, it remains a strong contender as a safe haven for investors during the upcoming US presidential election. Historically, Japan's currency has outperformed the dollar, Swiss franc, gold, Treasuries, and euro in times of market stress, positioning it as a preferred choice ahead of the Nov. 5 vote.
EUR/JPY and USD/JPY continue to rally ahead of the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, with EUR/JPY targeting the ¥167.33-¥168.01 resistance zone after surpassing the previous range. Meanwhile, AUD/USD has dropped to its $0.6580-58 support zone, which is expected to hold this week.
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The recent electoral defeat of Japan’s ruling coalition has raised concerns among Tokyo bankers regarding the new government's commitment to revitalizing financial markets, particularly in asset management. This uncertainty threatens the previously positive outlook for Japan as a leading asset management center, which had attracted overseas investors. Market analysts suggest a cautious approach as stakeholders await clarity on future policies.
The US dollar remains the dominant global currency, holding 62% of foreign exchange reserves, while the euro trails at 20%. Despite efforts from BRICS nations to establish alternatives, the dollar's unique attributes—such as a large economy, liquid capital markets, and free tradability—ensure its continued supremacy. The euro is the only potential challenger, but its structural flaws hinder confidence in its viability.
The Nasdaq Composite reached an all-time high, closing the week up 0.2%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones snapped their six-week winning streaks due to disappointing earnings from major companies. Japan's ruling coalition lost its parliamentary majority, contributing to a weaker yen, while China's industrial profits plummeted 27.1%, marking the steepest decline since the pandemic began. Oil prices fell over 4% amid geopolitical tensions, and investors are looking ahead to a busy week of earnings reports and economic data.
European markets are set for a mixed opening as Philips lowers its full-year sales outlook due to deteriorating demand in China, now expecting growth of only 0.5% to 1.5%. CEO Roy Jakobs noted that while consumer confidence is weak, China remains a crucial market for future growth. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen has hit a three-month low against the dollar following recent elections.
AUD/USD is poised for its largest monthly decline since September 2022, with an expected drop of about 4.8% in October, closing last week at 0.6604. The upcoming US election could further impact the currency pair, with a potential Republican sweep likely to strengthen the USD, while a divided Congress may support AUD/USD. Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, with key support levels at 0.6500 and 0.6380 - 0.6350.
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The SMI closed higher, with Sonova experiencing significant gains, while Wall Street showed firmness. In Asian currency trading, the yen fell to 153.55 per US dollar amid political shifts, with analysts predicting a potential rise to 155 yen as the Bank of Japan deliberates on interest rates. The dollar also strengthened against the yuan and Swiss franc, while the euro remained stable against the dollar.
Japan's central bank is expected to continue its interest rate hike cycle despite the Liberal Democratic Party's recent electoral setback, which saw it lose its majority for the first time since 2009. Analysts believe that while political instability may delay hikes, sustained yen weakness could prompt action as early as December or January. The Bank of Japan's independence is seen as crucial, with expectations of corporate earnings growth supporting market optimism.
Oil prices fell sharply on Monday as Israel's recent strike on Iran did not disrupt energy supplies, alleviating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the yen dropped significantly after Japan's ruling coalition lost its parliamentary majority, raising concerns about future rate hikes. In other news, Eli Lilly plans to launch its weight-loss drug, Mounjaro, in Hong Kong by year-end.

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